This Christmas, a bar of chocolate in Polish supermarkets will likely cost more than PLN 10. The reason is the rising price of cocoa, which according to Statistics Poland (GUS) was 16.7% higher in July than a year earlier. The paradox is that while cocoa prices on global markets have fallen by one-third since the beginning of the year, there is little chance they will return to previous levels. Structural problems in West Africa are turning cocoa products into a luxury item.
Cocoa Prices Fall Globally, But Remain Historically High
Since January, global cocoa prices have dropped by about one-third, with the commodity currently trading at USD 7,675 per ton. In December last year, cocoa hit an all-time record of over USD 12,000 per ton. For comparison, for many years prices hovered around USD 2,500–3,000 per ton. Today’s levels, although well below last year’s peak, remain exceptionally high compared to earlier decades.
Two main factors are driving the price drop. First, after months of poor harvests in West Africa, there are signs of recovery. Improving weather conditions and the maturing of new plantations, particularly in Ecuador, are expected to increase supply in the coming season. Second, industrial demand is weakening. In Q2 2025, cocoa processing fell 7.2% in Europe, 16% in Asia, and 2.8% in North America. Manufacturers have scaled back purchases as raw material costs proved too high, and consumers have cut back on chocolate consumption, often turning to cheaper alternatives.
Structural Problems Still Limit Supply
Despite the recent correction, many issues in the cocoa market remain unresolved, and higher prices may persist longer. Unfavorable weather and crop diseases continue to constrain production, limiting global supply. In addition, aging plantations and a lack of investment in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire mean the supply shortfall has become structural.
Higher Prices for Polish Consumers
Even though global cocoa prices are falling, Polish consumers are still seeing higher prices in stores. Producers and retailers are only now passing on the effects of the earlier price shock. According to GUS, cocoa and cocoa powder were 16.7% more expensive in July than a year earlier, with prices rising by 1% in July alone. This increase contributed 0.02 percentage points to inflation for the month.
The same is true for chocolate. A standard bar now costs more than PLN 8 in supermarkets, while in smaller stores prices already exceed PLN 10. This is particularly unwelcome news at the start of the school year, when parents are shopping for supplies and treats for their children. Although global cocoa prices have begun to normalize, Polish shoppers should not expect to see the benefits any time soon.
A Volatile Market for Investors
For investors, cocoa remains a highly volatile commodity. Short-term price swings are sharp and difficult to predict. Key risks include weather patterns, crop diseases in West Africa, and shifts in demand from chocolate manufacturers, who are becoming more cautious in the face of high costs. Over the medium term, cocoa prices are expected to stay elevated, though a return to record highs above USD 10,000 per ton appears unlikely. Investors should also factor in the continued risk of falling demand, driven by rising chocolate prices.
Author: Paweł Majtkowski, Analyst at eToro Poland
Source: managerplus.pl
