The Regional Business Climate Indicator, or R-BCI, improved year on year in June 2026 in most of the surveyed sectors and voivodeships. The strongest improvement was recorded in construction, where the indicator rose in 14 out of 16 voivodeships, and in accommodation and food services, where it improved in 13 regions.
Despite the more optimistic mood, employment costs remain the most frequently cited barrier to business activity across all analysed sectors. At the same time, companies now make wage decisions primarily on the basis of their own financial situation.
Economic Sentiment | Statistics Poland | June 2026
In June 2026, business sentiment improved, but employment costs continued to weigh on companies.
In construction, the R-BCI improved year on year in 14 out of 16 voivodeships. In accommodation and food services, the indicator was positive in 15 out of 16 regions. Employment costs were cited as a barrier by up to 95.4% of companies, while the financial situation of the company was identified by up to 100% of respondents as the main factor influencing wage decisions.
Overall Picture: Better Sentiment, but Still Uneven
Since the beginning of 2026, the R-BCI indicator in most surveyed areas of the economy has been stronger than a year earlier. In June, compared with the same month of 2025, improvement was most frequently recorded in construction, where the indicator rose in 14 voivodeships, accommodation and food services in 13, information and communication and transportation and storage in 11 each, and manufacturing and wholesale trade in nine each.
In retail trade, improvement was recorded in half of the voivodeships. In the short term, compared with May, the most positive changes were seen in information and communication as well as accommodation and food services.
Chart 1. Number of voivodeships with year-on-year improvement in R-BCI in June 2026, by section, out of 16 voivodeships
Which Sectors Are the Most Optimistic
In June 2026, business climate assessments remained particularly optimistic in accommodation and food services. Positive R-BCI values were recorded in 15 out of 16 voivodeships, with the highest reading, 38.1, in Podkarpackie.
Sentiment was also strong in information and communication, where 13 voivodeships recorded positive values. The leader was Podlaskie, with a score of 26.8. Wholesale trade also performed relatively well, with positive readings in 12 voivodeships and the highest value, 9.0, recorded in Pomorskie.
The opposite situation was observed in manufacturing, where the indicator was positive in only three voivodeships: Mazowieckie, Podkarpackie and Małopolskie. In retail trade, positive readings were recorded in only four voivodeships.
Chart 2. Number of voivodeships with positive R-BCI in June 2026, by section, out of 16 voivodeships
Construction: The Strongest Year-on-Year Improvement
Among all analysed sections, construction recorded the most widespread improvement compared with June 2025. The R-BCI rose in 14 voivodeships, with the strongest increases seen in Warmińsko-Mazurskie, up by 21.6 points, Lubuskie, up by 18.1 points, and Lubelskie, up by 13.4 points.
In June 2026 itself, the most optimistic sentiment in construction was recorded in Podlaskie, where the R-BCI stood at 10.9, followed by Pomorskie at 5.6 and Dolnośląskie at 5.4.
Despite the improvement, construction companies continued to report a decline in construction and assembly output as well as in the number of orders. However, assessments of companies’ financial situation improved year on year in most regions.
Barriers: Employment Costs Still Come First
Across all seven surveyed sections, employment costs remain the most frequently cited barrier to business activity. Their importance varies by region, however.
In June 2026, the highest percentage of companies pointing to this barrier was recorded in transportation and storage in Opolskie, at 95.4%, and in accommodation and food services in Wielkopolskie, at 94.3%.
In many regions, however, the importance of this barrier decreased year on year. For example, in construction in Podkarpackie, it fell by 11.6 percentage points.
The second most frequently mentioned barrier remains uncertainty about the general economic situation, which is particularly burdensome in wholesale trade and transportation.
Chart 3. Highest percentage of companies citing employment costs as a barrier, June 2026, by section, maximum among voivodeships
Wages: What Determines Pay Rises
In an in-depth survey, Statistics Poland asked entrepreneurs what, in their opinion, would have the greatest impact on employee wage levels over the next three months.
Across all seven sections and in most voivodeships, the most frequently indicated answer was the company’s financial situation. In manufacturing and wholesale trade, this factor was indicated in June by 100% of surveyed voivodeships as the most important one, and its significance also increased year on year.
The second most important factor remains maintaining the real value of wages, while the third is maintaining competitive pay levels. The latter was indicated much less frequently than the first two factors.
| Section | Maximum share citing “company’s financial situation” | Voivodeship |
|---|---|---|
| Information and communication | 100.0% | Podlaskie |
| Transportation and storage | 95.6% | Opolskie |
| Wholesale trade | 86.3% | Opolskie |
| Accommodation and food services | 83.2% | Lubelskie |
| Manufacturing | 80.7% | Podlaskie |
| Retail trade | 76.5% | Podlaskie |
| Construction | 73.4% | Śląskie |
Improving business sentiment and the growing role of companies’ financial situation in wage decisions go hand in hand. Entrepreneurs are increasingly raising wages when their own financial results allow them to do so, rather than in response to labour market pressure or the need to match competitors’ pay levels. This suggests a more defensive than expansionary approach to wage policy.
What This Means for Business
Business sentiment is improving fastest in construction and accommodation and food services. These are the sectors where companies may now be expected to show a greater willingness to invest and hire.
Manufacturing and retail trade remain the most pessimistic sectors. In both, the R-BCI was negative in the vast majority of voivodeships, despite the overall improvement seen since the beginning of the year.
Employment costs are the common denominator of business challenges across the economy. Even in sectors where sentiment is improving, they remain the main barrier to development.
Companies’ wage decisions are now driven mainly by their own financial condition, rather than by the desire to maintain competitive pay levels. This is a signal that wage pressure on the labour market is weakening.
Regional differences remain significant. They range from strongly negative assessments in some voivodeships, such as retail trade in Opolskie, where the R-BCI stood at -16.7, to record-high optimism elsewhere, such as accommodation and food services in Podkarpackie, where the indicator reached 38.1. Regional expansion strategies should take these differences into account.
Methodology
The Business Climate Indicator, or BCI, is the arithmetic mean of the balances of responses to questions about the current and expected economic situation of an enterprise. It ranges from -100 to +100, where 0 represents a neutral assessment.
R-BCI is the BCI indicator presented at the voivodeship level. The survey covers seven PKD sections: manufacturing, construction, wholesale trade, retail trade, transportation and storage, accommodation and food services, and information and communication.
The data come from a study prepared by the Statistical Office in Zielona Góra, specifically the Lubuskie Centre for Regional Surveys, on behalf of Statistics Poland.
Source: CEO.com.pl
