August was the first month this year in which the number of apartments offered by developers in Poland’s seven largest metropolitan areas decreased. The good news is that this did not affect the average price per square meter – for the second month in a row, prices did not rise in any of these cities.
“Developers are counting heavily on strong autumn sales. June’s results turned out to be a cold shower for many of them. Although July brought a rebound in sales in most of the largest metropolitan areas, August was already weaker in this respect,” says Marek Wielgo, an expert at RynekPierwotny.pl. He explains that the drop in sales in Warsaw, Kraków, Łódź, and the Upper Silesian-Zagłębie Metropolis can be partly attributed to the holiday season, when many potential buyers decided there was no rush. After all, housing supply had been growing and prices had stabilized. Another, perhaps more important, reason is that loans remain expensive, and three previous rate cuts have only slightly improved the situation for those relying on mortgages.
“That’s why this year we should not expect a rush to developers’ sales offices. This doesn’t mean demand will remain immune to improving credit availability, especially since developers have increased the supply of more affordable apartments suitable for mortgage borrowers,” Wielgo adds.
According to BIG DATA RynekPierwotny.pl, buyers in Kraków had around 3,400 apartments in August priced at PLN 10,000–15,000 per square meter – 21% more than at the beginning of the year. More such units were also available in Wrocław (+17%), Poznań (+16%), and Warsaw (+7%). Only in the Tri-City did their number fall by 7% over the eight-month period, despite being higher just a month earlier.
This may explain why the average price per square meter of all developer-listed apartments increased the most in the Tri-City – by as much as 9% this year. In Warsaw, Kraków, and Poznań, the average rose only by 1%, while in Łódź and Wrocław it remained unchanged. The influx of relatively affordable housing helped stabilize the overall average price.
Data shows that August was the second consecutive month this year in which no increases in average prices were recorded across all major cities. By the end of August, the average was about PLN 17,800 per square meter in Warsaw, followed by the Tri-City (PLN 16,800) and Kraków (PLN 16,700). Next came Wrocław (PLN 14,700), Poznań (PLN 13,600), Łódź (PLN 11,500), and the Upper Silesian-Zagłębie Metropolis (PLN 11,400).
Year-on-year comparisons still show differences in most cities, except Warsaw and Łódź, where averages were nearly identical to August 2024. In other cities, gaps are narrowing. For instance, in Wrocław the year-on-year difference shrank from 12% in January to just 2% in August. In the Tri-City, annual growth fell from 10% in June to 7% in August.
After eight months, Warsaw and Łódź are competing with Kraków, Wrocław, and Poznań for the title of the most price-stable markets in 2025, with year-on-year changes of only 2%. In the Upper Silesian-Zagłębie Metropolis, the increase was 5%.
Whether stability will continue depends on how strongly housing sales pick up. Delaying purchases in hopes of further rate cuts may not make sense. National Bank of Poland President Adam Glapiński has suggested another cut is unlikely soon, and the government’s plan to raise the corporate income tax (CIT) for banks in 2026 could push up lending margins.
Meanwhile, in several metropolitan areas, supply shrank sharply as developers deliberately slowed new listings. Compared to July, fewer new apartments were launched in Warsaw (-51%), Kraków (-9%), Wrocław (-45%), the Tri-City (-70%), and Łódź (-74%). In Kraków, sales fell even more sharply, which is why supply only increased slightly.
At the end of August, developer listings included just over 17,400 units in Warsaw (-1% month-on-month), 11,500 in Kraków (+1%), 10,800 in Wrocław (-3%), 8,600 in the Tri-City (-5%), 10,100 in Łódź (-2%), 8,600 in Poznań (+2%), and about 11,100 in the Upper Silesian-Zagłębie Metropolis (+1%).
“If developers apply the brakes more firmly, we cannot rule out the psychological effect seen in previous years: shrinking supply combined with rising prices accelerates decisions among buyers with large savings or good access to credit. At present, however, the supply is so high that this scenario is more likely in 2026. Those seeking homes for their own use can continue searching for optimal offers without feeling pressured by time,” comments Marek Wielgo.
Source: CEO.com.pl
