In January-February 2024, Poland’s foreign trade turnover reached 247.8 billion PLN in exports and 237.6 billion PLN in imports at current prices. The trade balance showed a positive surplus of 10.2 billion PLN, compared to 8.2 billion PLN in the same period of 2023, according to the Central Statistical Office of Poland (GUS). February saw an increase in exports compared to January. The trade balance surplus expanded from 6.2 billion PLN to 10.2 billion PLN, marking a growth of over 65%.
However, the dynamics of exports and imports are not entirely satisfying. In the first two months, they experienced declines of 10% and 11.2%, respectively. Given the increased trade surplus and a slowdown in the decline of exports and imports, February showed some signs of revitalization in Poland’s international trade, regardless of the currency considered. The strengthening Polish złoty also played a role. Nevertheless, certain signs indicate that trade will continue to positively impact our GDP in the first quarter.
February also saw a reduction in the rate of export decline to our three main trading partners: Germany, France, and the Czech Republic. However, considering recent PMI readings and industrial orders from our western neighbors, the outlook for the coming months remains somewhat negative.
More detailed data shows that trade continues to drive our industry, potentially for the last time this month. Sectors where industrial production is increasing (mainly machinery, equipment, vehicles) represent a significant share of trade – 35.5%. If this sector begins to feel the impact of the German slowdown, our industry might fall below the four-year trend line.
Mariusz Zielonka, economic expert at the Confederation Lewiatan.
