Despite intense trade tensions and multi-layered risk, Allianz Trade upgraded the country risk ratings of 36 countries, downgrading only 14.
- According to Allianz Trade, global country risk improved in 2025, with the number of upgrades almost twice the number of downgrades.
- That said, several key economies—such as France, Belgium and the United States—were downgraded, signalling that significant risk for businesses persists over the medium term (together these countries generate roughly one third of global GDP—31.6%—ten times more than the economies that recorded improvements).
- Central and Eastern Europe posted the largest improvement in underlying risk components—time for Polish businesses to seize this nearby potential, now safer than it used to be.
Allianz Trade has published the third Country Risk Atlas, its flagship report assessing economic outlooks, risks and opportunities across 83 countries representing around 94% of global GDP. The Atlas is based on Allianz Trade’s proprietary country risk ratings model, updated quarterly with the latest economic data and Allianz Trade’s own insights.
Net changes in headline and component risk scores by region, last 12 months
Source: Allianz Trade Economic Research
“Our ratings provide a comprehensive analysis and insight into the economic, political and business environment, as well as sustainability factors that influence macro-level trends in corporate non-payment risk. Each assessment combines 17 short-term indicators and 18 medium-term indicators and serves decision-makers as a pragmatic compass in a multi-crisis world—helping them navigate instability, protect cash flow and turn risk awareness into a competitive advantage”
– explains Luca Moneta, Senior Emerging Markets Economist at Allianz Trade.
Central and Eastern Europe: lower risk—and rising potential
As Sławomir Bąk, Managing Director for Risk Underwriting, Claims and Collections at Allianz Trade Poland notes:
“Without a doubt, the most important development for Polish entrepreneurs is the improvement related to Germany—our largest trading partner. Not so much the rating itself, but what it reflects: Germany’s trade performance may not be impressive, yet the outlook is improving thanks to regained political stability and a willingness to reform. The (temporarily?) suspended trade war with a more protectionist United States and competition from China continue to threaten Germany’s export-driven model; however, the German government has launched plans for fiscal expansion and is rolling out measures to revive economic growth.
I see even greater growth potential elsewhere—namely, in our own region. Polish exports grew fastest last year to advanced economies outside the EU (e.g., the US, +3.7% y/y in USD—while in PLN they declined due to the zloty’s appreciation) rather than to Western European markets (+1.9%). That is good—trade diversification is needed, but… the growth potential is also much closer—right here in our region!
Meanwhile, trade with countries in our region (excluding Russia and Ukraine) grew last year by 1–2% y/y—well below potential and below the ‘premium’ provided by geographic (and largely cultural) proximity. To look beyond the obvious closest partners—Czechia and Slovakia: in Bulgaria, in addition to strong private and public consumption, investment accelerated from the beginning of 2025, all while public debt remains low (below 30%!). Romania, admittedly, has not recently posted equally strong public finance results—its fiscal and current account deficits have been high (above 8%)—but it remains an economy with an impressive growth pace in recent years, which has strengthened the local business environment and industrial sector.
Polish entrepreneurs should visit Central and Eastern Europe more often not only as tourists, but also on business: the region’s economic potential has increased dramatically, and doing business here is also far safer than we used to think—its business risk ratings have improved very markedly.”
Contrary to expectations, the global country-risk picture improved in 2025
Despite a year marked by intense trade tensions and multi-layered risk (political, geopolitical and fiscal), Allianz Trade reports that global country risk improved in 2025: ratings were upgraded for 36 countries and downgraded for only 14. This trend confirms “coping” mechanisms—a mix of fiscal, monetary and trade policy measures that typically emerge during periods of elevated uncertainty. Among the 36 economies upgraded were Argentina, Ecuador, Hungary, Italy, Spain, Turkey and Vietnam, which recorded particularly strong improvements.
“In 2025, upgrades were primarily driven by stronger macroeconomic fundamentals, supported by more accommodative fiscal and monetary policies. In several emerging economies, improved financing conditions, local currency appreciation and higher commodity prices enabled the lifting of transfer and convertibility restrictions—one of the key dimensions of political risk. Among high-income economies, improved political stability, disinflation and stronger trade performance increased resilience to political risk across Europe (especially in Germany, Greece, Italy and Spain) and in Asia-Pacific (including South Korea and Vietnam).”
—says Ana Boata, Head of Economic Research at Allianz Trade.
Overall improvement masks persistent medium-term risks for businesses
Although the number of downgrades may appear limited, it is worth noting that compared with 2024 it almost tripled (from 5 to 14). Moreover, the downgrade list includes several key economies—France, Belgium and the United States—highlighting continued medium-term headwinds for businesses.
“Resilience is increasing, but in major economies there is still a concentration of risk. For example, last year we saw a deterioration in medium-term macroeconomic conditions in 7 markets, compared with 18 that improved. However, among those that deteriorated are Belgium, Brazil, France and the United States—which together account for about one third of global GDP, i.e., ten times more than the economies that improved.
The global economy is going through one of the most turbulent periods in decades, marked by a convergence of shocks and structural shifts such as artificial intelligence, demographics, climate change, trade and regulation. Uncertainty remains high, and businesses must adopt a selective country-by-country approach to grow while protecting their assets. This underscores the need for granular, forward-looking risk management that goes beyond overall rating assessments. Continuous monitoring of transfer and convertibility conditions, fiscal trajectories and trade exposure will be crucial to anticipate turning points.”
– concludes Aylin Somersan Coqui, CEO of Allianz Trade.
