Non-alcoholic beverage brands have delivered a 69% return over five years, while alcohol giants are losing ground—their valuations have fallen by 26% over the same period. These results reflect growing demand for non-alcoholic and low-alcohol alternatives, driven by changing lifestyles and consumer choices. Leading the gains is fitness and energy-drink company Celsius Holdings, which has generated a 211% return for investors. By contrast, spirits groups are dragging down the “alcohol basket,” weighing on its overall performance.
As the global popularity of Dry January—launched in the UK in 2013 by Alcohol Change UK to encourage a month of abstinence at the start of the year—continues to grow, more consumers in Poland are also reaching for alcohol-free alternatives. A new analysis by trading and investment platform eToro shows that this shift is increasingly reflected in financial markets, delivering sober conclusions for listed alcohol producers.
eToro compared two equally weighted baskets of well-known beverage brands. The first included alcohol producers Diageo, Heineken, Pernod Ricard, Carlsberg, and Anheuser-Busch InBev. The second consisted of non-alcoholic companies The Coca-Cola Company, PepsiCo, Monster Beverage, Celsius Holdings, and A.G. Barr.
Over the past five years, the non-alcoholic basket rose by 69%, while the alcohol producers’ basket fell by 26%. The gap is visible not only long term. Over the last 12 months, non-alcoholic brands gained 24%, while alcohol producers lost 6%. The trend is even clearer over a three-year horizon: non-alcoholic companies posted an 18% increase, while alcohol companies recorded a 29% decline.
Paweł Majtkowski, eToro’s market analyst in Poland, comments:
“Dry January is a trend that is rapidly gaining importance—especially in the UK and the United States, and increasingly in Poland as well. It’s more than a seasonal habit; it’s a clear signal of a broader lifestyle shift, particularly among younger consumers. This change is also reflected in financial markets. Traditional alcohol producers are finding it harder to maintain growth, while investor capital is flowing toward non-alcoholic and functional beverages. These are seen as healthier, better aligned with Generation Z preferences, and offering higher growth potential and stronger pricing power. This is not yet a revolution, but an evolution that is clearly accelerating.”
Within the alcohol basket, long-term performance remains weak. Diageo and Pernod Ricard—owner of Polish brands Wyborowa and Luksusowa—have lost more than 40% of their value over five years, and none of the alcohol companies in the group generated a positive return over three years. Beer producers showed some resilience over the past 12 months: Carlsberg gained 21% and Anheuser-Busch InBev 14%, but this was not enough to offset broader declines.
By comparison, non-alcoholic brands posted broader and more stable gains, driven primarily by energy and functional drinks. Celsius Holdings rose 211% over five years, while Monster Beverage gained 71%. More established non-alcoholic companies also contributed positively: The Coca-Cola Company rose 33%, and A.G. Barr 28% over the same period.
Majtkowski adds:
“Investors are looking more closely at beverage producers, and selectivity is increasing—just as it is among consumers themselves. For companies, this is a clear signal that success today depends not only on brand strength, but also on innovation, a well-tailored product offering, and the ability to respond quickly to changing consumption habits. In such conditions, an overly broad portfolio can become a hindrance rather than a driver of growth.”
Returns comparison
| Brand | 1-year return | 3-year return | 5-year return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alcohol producers | |||
| Diageo | -33% | -54% | -43% |
| Heineken | 0.5% | -21% | -21% |
| Pernod Ricard | -30% | -58% | -51% |
| Carlsberg | 21% | -8% | -12% |
| Anheuser-Busch InBev | 14% | -1% | -2% |
| Average basket | -6% | -29% | -26% |
| Non-alcoholic producers | |||
| The Coca-Cola Company | 12% | 11% | 33% |
| PepsiCo | -2% | -18% | 2% |
| Monster Beverage | 50% | 52% | 71% |
| Celsius Holdings | 53% | 21% | 211% |
| A.G. Barr | 7% | 25% | 28% |
| Average basket | 24% | 18% | 69% |
The table compares performance of alcohol producers versus non-alcoholic beverage producers. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Source: ceo.com.pl
