According to the “KPMG CEO Outlook 2025. Consumer & Retail” report, 78% of executives managing companies in the consumer goods and retail sector believe in the industry’s growth prospects, yet only 13% expect revenue growth of between 5% and 9.9%, highlighting the scale of margin pressure and the demanding market environment. 52% of CEOs identify supply chain resilience as the biggest short-term challenge. At the same time, 64% regard artificial intelligence as a key investment priority, while organizations are accelerating operational transformation, focusing on improving efficiency and business resilience.
The survey, conducted among 120 CEOs of global companies, shows that the consumer goods and retail sector is operating in conditions of growing demand polarization and margin pressure, leading to a more selective approach to investment and business transformation.
Market polarization
Global leaders in the consumer goods and retail sector remain moderately optimistic, although their expectations for their own organizations have declined. Confidence in the growth of their own companies fell to 77%, down from 82% a year earlier, reflecting the challenging market environment and persistent cost pressure.
At the same time, a clear shift in consumer behavior is visible. On the one hand, the premium customer segment is expanding, while on the other, a growing group of consumers is looking for savings. This forces companies to operate simultaneously across different price segments.
Supply chain as the key challenge
Supply chain resilience is identified as the most important short-term challenge by 52% of respondents—a significant increase compared with 30% in 2024 and 15% in 2023. Factors such as geopolitical tensions, trade barriers, and climate crises are reshaping operational strategies, including supplier diversification and the development of nearshoring.
“In recent years, the Polish consumer goods and retail market has been experiencing deep demand polarization—similar to Western markets, but with the difference that in Poland this phenomenon is progressing faster due to dynamic changes in real incomes. The premium consumer segment is growing stronger, yet the middle class is increasingly seeking savings, which forces distributors and manufacturers to operate simultaneously across several price segments. Supply chain resilience has a particular dimension in Poland: as a transit country and a manufacturing base for many European retail chains, Poland must both absorb external shocks and build resilience within its own logistics structures,” says Piotr Grauer, Associate Partner in Deal Advisory and Head of Consumer Goods Advisory at KPMG in Poland.
At the same time, the approach to mergers and acquisitions is also changing. Organizations are moving away from large, transformative transactions in favor of more selective acquisitions that support the development of specific capabilities or entry into new product categories. At the same time, overall M&A volume may rebound in 2026, driven by divestments from large corporations and growing activity from private equity funds returning to the market in search of attractive acquisition targets.
AI is accelerating the sector’s transformation
Artificial intelligence is becoming one of the main drivers of transformation. 64% of CEOs identify it as an investment priority, and 73% plan to allocate between 10% and 20% of their technology budget to it.
Organizations are increasingly moving from the pilot phase to the full operationalization of AI solutions, recognizing tangible benefits—above all, increased efficiency, better support for decision-making processes, and the development of more personalized customer experiences. At the same time, 68% of respondents expect a return on investment in AI within one to three years, which represents a clear acceleration compared with the previous year.
Technological transformation is also affecting the labor market. 73% of organizations are redesigning employee roles and career paths, while 82% state that AI is changing the way competencies are developed.
“The growing role of AI in personalization and inventory management is an opportunity that Polish companies are increasingly recognizing. However, the road from pilot projects to full operationalization remains long—primarily due to fragmented data and a shortage of analytical competencies. Over the next three years, the key differentiating factor will be the ability to integrate AI with supply chain management and customer service processes. Organizations that succeed in doing so will build a lasting cost and loyalty advantage in an increasingly competitive market,” says Piotr Grauer, Associate Partner in Deal Advisory and Head of Consumer Goods Advisory at KPMG in Poland.
About the report
“KPMG CEO Outlook 2025. Consumer & Retail” is the eleventh edition of KPMG’s global survey, conducted among 120 CEOs from the consumer goods and retail sector, each leading organizations with annual revenues exceeding USD 500 million. The survey was carried out between 5 August and 10 September 2025 across 11 key markets, including the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Japan, and China.
Source: https://ceo.com.pl/ai-nearshoring-i-selektywne-ma-ksztaltuja-nowa-faze-rozwoju-sektora-retail-10383
