For the past two years, building material prices have remained essentially flat — but that may soon change. September brought the first signs of a recovery in the construction sector. An increasing number of manufacturers are reporting rising raw material costs and wage pressure, which could begin pushing prices upward. For now, these signals are still subtle — but the construction market may be one step away from a turning point. What else indicates that the trend may soon reverse?
Price Structure: Declines Still Dominate
According to Jarosław Jędrzyński, expert at RynekPierwotny.pl, the latest September data on building material prices still does not indicate a decisive trend reversal. PSB Group data shows that average material prices fell 0.7% year-on-year. In retail distribution the drop was 0.3%, and in wholesale 0.8%. This is slightly better than the previous month — but still not enough to confirm a shift in direction.
As in August, price increases were recorded in only four product categories, while 16 categories saw further declines — a structure that has remained virtually unchanged for months, confirming a market still locked in price stagnation and subdued demand.
The steepest price drops were recorded in:
• waterproof insulation (-3.4%)
• lighting and electrical equipment (-3.3%)
• finishing materials (-3.4%)
Price increases were noted in four categories — but meaningful only in two:
• OSB boards and timber (+10.5%)
• paints and varnishes (+3.4%)
The clear dominance of declining categories, combined with a greater magnitude of price cuts versus increases, shows that disinflationary pressure still prevails. At the same time — as Jędrzyński notes — where prices are rising, they are now rising more visibly.
Interestingly, GUS data on both residential construction and construction-assembly output, which have a direct impact on building material demand, showed a noticeable rebound in September — accompanied by a sharp rise in OSB board and timber prices.
Why Are OSB Boards and Timber Getting More Expensive?
The “OSB boards and timber” category stands out from the entire market — prices rose by 10.5% y/y, and by around 20% just in Q3. This is the first significant upward signal in any segment of the construction materials market.
What’s driving the increase?
- Growing demand for timber construction and prefabrication: Rising interest in skeletal structures, modular homes and garden installations is increasing demand for structural timber and OSB boards.
- Limited raw material supply: Reduced availability of local wood and lower production output are driving prices higher — when sawmills cut back processing, wood-based materials become more expensive.
- Return of export demand: Stronger demand from European markets is pulling part of production abroad, lowering domestic supply and supporting price growth.
As Jędrzyński explains, the timber–OSB segment often acts as a leading indicator, signalling the first turnaround in material prices — exactly as it did during the last construction boom, when it was the fastest-growing category.
Is This the First Sign of a Break in the Trend?
“Rising prices of OSB boards and timber are the first meaningful signal in many months that the building materials market may be at the verge of a trend reversal. The wood segment typically reacts faster than others — it is more closely tied to prefabrication, residential construction and exports.
The price surge is driven by three forces: rising demand for timber and modular construction; raw material supply constraints; and reviving export demand. If upcoming construction data confirms renewed investment activity, OSB and timber may become the first category to set a new direction for prices across the sector.”
— says Jarosław Jędrzyński, RynekPierwotny.pl
Market Still in Stagnation — But Signs of Awakening Are Emerging
September did not yet bring a breakthrough — but several indicators now suggest the market may be nearing a turning point. Price declines still dominate overall — but the first strong exceptions are emerging, most notably in OSB and timber.
The market remains in stagnation — yet early signs of a potential rebound are appearing on the horizon. September’s improvement in construction output, led by the residential segment, combined with rising OSB and timber prices, may be the first signal that the deepest phase of stagnation is slowly coming to an end.
