After setting a historic price record, gold has seen a correction of over $200 in just a few weeks. Still, investors should consider several scenarios—one of which includes gold climbing to $4,000 per ounce by the end of 2025, breaking new records.
Since the beginning of the year, gold prices have surged by 26%. In mid-April, gold futures reached an all-time high of $3,506 per ounce. However, by the end of the month, the price dropped to $3,311, and May began with gold trading at $3,233 per ounce.
“We’re seeing a significant correction in gold prices due to shifts in the global geopolitical landscape. The worst-case scenario in terms of trade wars seems to have faded, and the U.S. dollar has regained some strength—even though it remains extremely undervalued,” said Michał Stajniak, Deputy Director of Analysis at XTB, in an interview with MarketNews24.
By late April, the world’s most important currency pair—EUR/USD—had reached levels around 1.14. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar fell to its lowest exchange rate in years against the Polish złoty, dropping to 3.75 PLN/USD.
The leading global institution tracking gold fundamentals has published a new report showing that gold’s long-term fundamentals remain strong. Central bank purchases continue, although at a slightly slower pace compared to Q4 2024.
“We’re also seeing strong quarterly demand from gold ETFs, the highest in three years,” added the XTB expert.
Where Is Gold Headed by Year-End?
Several scenarios are on the table. The future of global trade tensions remains uncertain. However, macroeconomic data from the United States continues to deteriorate, which could hurt the dollar and benefit gold.
“I expect capital outflows from the U.S., and investors will keep seeking safe-haven assets,” says Stajniak. “There’s real potential for gold prices to reach a range of $3,700–$4,000 per ounce by the end of this year.”
Investing in Gold in Polish Złoty
Given the current low USD/PLN levels, now could be a good time for Polish investors to consider gold. In the long term, the złoty is likely to weaken against the dollar, making gold potentially even more attractive.
However, to reduce risk, investors should adopt a long-term perspective—five years or more, Stajniak advises.
Source: managerplus.pl
