Following a rebound in May, the real estate market slowed down once more. In June, just under 3,100 apartments were sold across the seven largest markets, indicating that the effect of the interest rate cuts was only temporary. Notably, demand clearly outpaced new supply — a disparity not seen since September 2023, when the market was boosted by the “Safe Credit 2%” program. The secondary market also experienced declines, with both the number of listings and buyer activity falling.
June’s data leave no doubt — the May interest rate cut sparked only a brief market revival. Weaker sales figures confirm this was a one-off impulse rather than a sustained trend. Both buyers and developers cooled off quickly, and apartment sales in the seven major markets fell by 13% in June compared to May.
As Katarzyna Kuniewicz, Market Research Director at Otodom, reminds us, although sales were clearly lower than in May, they increased by 9% year-on-year compared to June 2024 and 2022. This could be a source of cautious optimism for developers’ forecasts for the second half of 2025. However, there is no doubt that repeating the record sales of June 2023, when 4,800 apartments were sold, seems unlikely without a sharp drop in interest rates—a scenario currently considered unrealistic.
Many Permits, Few New Apartments
A surprise in June, especially compared to previous months, was the number of apartments newly offered for sale. Developers in the seven largest markets added only about 2,500 units to their supply. What does this mean? Despite having substantial reserves of building permits (confirmed by data from Poland’s Central Statistical Office for 2022–2025), developers increasingly align their offers not with forecasted demand but with actual sales velocity.
The June developer offer — just over 62,100 apartments — shows the market is virtually stagnant. The change from May is minimal and mainly results from previously reserved apartments returning to sale. However, looking over a longer term, buyers’ choices are significantly greater today. Compared to last year, available apartments increased by as much as 30%.
A sustained wide selection of apartments coupled with relatively slow sales is evidenced by growing sell-through rates in June, observed in most markets. The exception was Kraków, which reported very good results — preliminary data indicate around 560 apartments sold there. Interestingly, a slight shortening of the time needed to sell the available stock was also seen in Warsaw.
Solid Second Quarter Performance
June’s data, closing out Q2 2025, allow a broader perspective on the developer market in Poland’s largest cities. Surprisingly strong May and solid June results mean sales across the seven key national markets grew by 4% versus the previous quarter and by 8% compared to the same period last year.
While these sales figures could inspire developer optimism, especially as they were achieved without government program support, caution is more evident on the supply side. Only 10,900 apartments were added to the offer in Q2 2025 — the lowest figure in two years. This is surprising given that available units increased by 30% year-on-year and by 90% since the September 2023 low.
“Maintaining current price levels is today a favorable scenario for developers. However, if no significant market impulses appear in the coming months—such as interest rate cuts or changes in creditworthiness assessment methodology—we should expect more frequent price adjustments, especially at the individual offer level,” Katarzyna Kuniewicz assesses.
Continued Slowdown in the Secondary Market
In June, the number of new second-hand apartment listings decreased in most major cities compared to both May and, in some cases, June last year. Wrocław led the monthly decline with a 10.4% drop in new listings. Fewer apartments also entered the market in Kraków and Warsaw (both -5%), Katowice (-4.7%), and Poznań (-4.3%). Even the relatively stable Tri-City area saw a 3.1% decrease.
Year-on-year, the picture is less clear. Poznań and Łódź saw increases in secondary market supply (17% and 13%, respectively), suggesting local supply revival. But exceptions exist: Kraków and Wrocław had noticeably fewer available units compared to June 2024 (down 5% and 9%, respectively).
“Although many cities still maintain clearly higher supply levels year-on-year—meaning sellers still influence the market—in June we saw the lowest year-over-year growth so far this year. Across the seven main markets, growth was only +1.5%, while previous months saw increases of several to even dozens of percent. Fewer new listings may result from slower offer rotation, longer sales times, and declining buyer interest,” explains Milena Chełchowska, Otodom housing market expert.
Fourth Consecutive Month of Decline
In June 2025, demand growth on the secondary market clearly slowed. The number of responses to apartment sale ads dropped in all analyzed cities. The largest decreases were in Katowice (-14.4%), Wrocław (-12.4%), and Poznań (-10.8%). Smaller declines were noted in Łódź, Tri-City, and Warsaw; Kraków saw the smallest change (-1.6%).
Year-on-year, market activity is more mixed. Many cities show significantly higher buyer interest than June 2024—especially Poznań (+14.7%), Warsaw (+11.2%), and Kraków (+9.6%). However, some locations experienced weaker demand: Katowice (-3.3%), Łódź (-4.3%), and Wrocław (-1.3%).
“June brought further signs of weakening demand on the secondary market. Although most local markets still show year-over-year growth in buyer interest, the scale was the lowest since early 2025. For the seven cities analyzed, the overall growth rate was just 7%, whereas previous months recorded annual increases of several to even dozens of percent. This signals a deepening demand slowdown, which—like the drop in new listings—may reflect buyer wait-and-see attitudes and broader real estate market cooling,” adds Chełchowska.
Stable Secondary Market Asking Prices
Secondary market asking prices for apartments in June 2025 remained stable. Month-to-month changes were small, generally below 0.5% across most cities. Year-on-year, price fluctuations were also minor. The largest price increases were recorded in Katowice (+6%) and Tri-City (+5%), while Warsaw (-3%), Wrocław (-2%), and Kraków (-2%) saw lower prices compared to last year.
As Milena Chełchowska summarizes:
“The secondary market remains calm, with prices holding relatively steady. This suggests summer may pass without major changes, with limited price pressure from both buyers and sellers.”
Source: ceo.com.pl
