The first quarter of 2025 is slowly coming to an end. The Polish government has not introduced any new support programs for consumers planning to buy property, and demand remains low despite the enormous need for housing. However, experts are noticing trends that suggest real estate prices may soon change.
“The secondary market is lowering prices, while developers firmly believe that price cuts are not a good idea at this moment. In some cities, the difference between asking prices in the primary and secondary markets already averages around 4,000 PLN per square meter. When it comes to transaction prices, these differences are expected to be even larger,” says real estate expert Mirosław Król.
Developers Refuse to Lower Prices
The price gap between the secondary and developer markets has become increasingly noticeable. Similar trends were observed in 2022 and 2023 when secondary market prices surged due to increased demand from Ukrainian buyers in Poland and beneficiaries of the “Safe 2% Mortgage” program. Prices later stabilized, but now, the divergence is once again apparent.
“This proves that developers are unwilling to lower prices, while sellers in the secondary market are more open to negotiations,” says Król.
In which cities is this price difference most noticeable? Experts agree that the larger the city, the greater the price gap, making the secondary market a more attractive option.
“For example, in Szczecin, the average price in the primary market exceeds 12,200 PLN per square meter, while in the secondary market, it is around 8,700 PLN per square meter—a difference of 3,500 PLN. This is a strong argument for purchasing a secondary market apartment. Similar trends are visible in other cities. In Łódź, the primary market price per square meter starts at approximately 12,000 PLN, whereas in the secondary market, it is around 9,000 PLN. Even in Kraków, the most expensive city in Poland, the difference between the two markets hovers around 3,000 PLN. This is a significant gap,” says Król.
“No Stability in the Real Estate Market”
Experts also highlight another trend—the difference between asking prices and actual transaction prices is much more significant in the secondary market than in the developer market. Król suggests that this may drive price-conscious buyers toward the secondary market.
“Of course, everything depends on the city, finish quality, and location, but negotiating with an individual seller in the secondary market is widely accepted. Discounts can sometimes reach 10-15%, and in some cases, even 20%. In the developer market, promotions do exist, but instead of lowering prices per square meter, developers prefer to offer incentives like interior design vouchers or free parking spaces,” says Król.
“Sellers in the secondary market are currently in a state of uncertainty. On one hand, they are listing properties for fear of further price drops, but on the other hand, if the government implements the ‘First Keys’ program, secondary market prices could surge to around 10,000 PLN per square meter for lower-priced apartments. The real estate market remains unstable,” Król adds.
Experts view the first quarter of 2025 as an improvement over the same period in 2024, but a full recovery in the real estate market is still far away.
Source: https://ceo.com.pl/przepasc-ceny-na-rynku-deweloperskim-odjezdzaja-od-cen-na-rynku-wtornym-96726
