The year 2025 is expected to bring improvements to the labor market as the economy begins to feel the stronger effects of EU investment funds. Despite these advancements, the year will also present challenges, including legal uncertainties, labor shortages, and economic pressures.
Economic Outlook and Wage Growth
The inflow of EU funds under the National Recovery Plan is anticipated to stimulate economic growth and accelerate investments. According to Prof. Jacek Męcina, advisor to the Board of the Confederation Lewiatan, the government plans to fast-track investments, and wage growth in enterprises is projected to moderate to 9.5–9.8%. For the first time in years, the growth rate of the minimum wage will drop to a single-digit figure.
However, wage pressure is likely to persist due to the shrinking labor supply and inflationary pressures. The public sector may see increased demands for pay raises, but this will be challenging given the strained budget and excessive deficit procedures. Rising energy prices, coupled with labor costs, remain a structural issue, hindering investment in employment growth.
Labor Shortages and Workforce Activation
Labor shortages will continue to be a pressing issue in 2025. Measures to activate economically inactive groups, particularly well-educated women and older workers, will be crucial. Efforts to streamline and digitalize procedures for work and residence permits for foreigners must also become a government priority.
Prof. Męcina emphasizes that fully digitalizing these processes and improving their efficiency is essential to meet the growing demand for foreign workers. This step could help alleviate labor shortages and support economic growth.
Legal Challenges and Controversial Changes
Changes in labor market regulations remain a source of concern for businesses. Issues such as prolonged delays in processing work permit applications and bureaucratic hurdles continue to hinder efficient foreign worker employment.
Additionally, the exclusion of bonuses and awards from the minimum wage calculation has raised objections. Discussions about introducing a four-day workweek have also sparked debate, with many considering it premature. While technological advancements may lead to significant changes in employment structures, these developments are seen as a long-term prospect rather than an immediate necessity.
EU Directive Implementation
Poland faces the challenge of implementing several EU directives, including those on pay transparency and equality. These changes are viewed as critical to improving women’s employment and compensation conditions. Prof. Męcina notes that faster progress is needed to prepare for reporting requirements on pay equality, which will come into effect in 2025.
The Confederation Lewiatan, in collaboration with the Congress of Women, has proposed reporting guidelines to promote wage equality. These guidelines have been preliminarily discussed with entrepreneurs and labor law experts, highlighting the importance of social dialogue in shaping effective solutions.
Another significant task ahead is the implementation of the EU directive on platform work, which has sparked concerns about overly broad regulations affecting B2B contracts. The Confederation Lewiatan plans to initiate dialogue with trade unions in 2025 to address these issues.
The Role of Social Dialogue
Looking ahead, Prof. Męcina underscores the importance of social dialogue and public consultations in addressing labor market challenges. Achieving balanced and effective solutions that benefit both workers and businesses will require collaborative efforts.
The year 2025 holds promise for economic growth and labor market improvements, but overcoming these challenges will demand strategic planning, efficient implementation of reforms, and a commitment to fostering cooperation among stakeholders.
